According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s September Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation expectation rose to 29.61 percent, while the year-end USD/TRY exchange rate expectation declined to 51.5716. The growth expectation for the current year fell to 3 percent.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) published the results of its September Market Participants Survey, conducted with 67 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors as well as professionals. According to the survey results, the expectation for the monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose from 2.08 percent in the previous survey period to 2.12 percent. The year-end CPI inflation expectation increased from 29.43 percent to 29.61 percent, while the 12-month-ahead expectation edged up from 23.69 percent to 23.70 percent and the 24-month-ahead expectation rose from 18.03 percent to 18.32 percent. Participants’ year-end USD/TRY exchange rate expectation declined from 51.6567 to 51.5716. In contrast, the 12-month-ahead USD/TRY expectation increased from 57.4278 to 58.6049. The year-end current account deficit expectation also recorded a slight decline. The expectation, which stood at USD 50.2 billion in the previous survey period, fell to USD 50.1 billion in the latest survey. The current account deficit expectation for next year also decreased from USD 44.444 billion to USD 44.368 billion.
The GDP growth expectation for the current year fell to 3 percent, while the growth expectation for next year declined from 4 percent to 3.9 percent. Regarding the CBRT’s policy rate, participants expected the rate to stand at 37 percent at the first meeting, 36 percent at the second meeting and 35.07 percent at the third meeting. The 12-month-ahead policy rate expectation declined to 29.22 percent.
